Bret Weinstein's Probability Map


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It is best to approach a complex issue with a provisional, probabilistic approach (allowing room for uncertainty i.e. the ability to move to a better position in line with further information) rather than be tempted into premature certainty.

Weinstein's chart is a neat way of laying out an ambiguous issue (i.e. one that allows a number of interpretations), allowing a certain narrative to be favoured whilst keeping the door open to competing interpretations.


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You know you're in a complex space if you have competing hypotheses and can't resolve them.

[Dave Snowden]


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