Bret Weinstein's Probability Map
................................................................................................................................................................................
It is best to approach a complex issue with a provisional, probabilistic approach (allowing room for uncertainty i.e. the ability to move to a better position in line with further information) rather than be tempted into premature certainty.
Weinstein's chart is a neat way of laying out an ambiguous issue (i.e. one that allows a number of interpretations), allowing a certain narrative to be favoured whilst keeping the door open to competing interpretations.
................................................................................................................................................................................
You know you're in a complex space if you have competing hypotheses and can't resolve them.
[Dave Snowden]
................................................................................................................................................................................